How
Long Can You Tread Water? by Tom S.
By James Wesley,
Rawles on July 5, 2010 6:14 PM
Noah may have questioned God about why he should build such a
big boat. To quote the comedian Bill Cosby, God might have
asked: ÒHow long can you tread water?Ó
In the event of an Electromagnetic
Pulse (EMP) burst 250 miles above Kansas or a super solar flare, the
loss of the electrical grid would stop almost all food production and
importation in the USA. Some estimate there is, at any given time, more
than 1,000 pounds per capita of food in consumable form available in the
USA. Unfortunately, it is very poorly distributed and will not be
available to the populace in a ÒGrid DownÓ scenario. So the question is
then, if you personally have not stored at least a three years supply of food
per person (and, no, a one year supply just wonÕt due), ÒHow long can you live
on a zero calorie dietÓ?
Iran, as this is written, has a small satellite circling the
earth 250 miles high. They are building a satellite launching facility
for larger rockets. They have launched missiles from a barge in the
Caspian Sea and detonated them at high altitude. They have tested a
sophisticated two point detonation method which allows a much smaller nuclear
bomb (reduced payload on a rocket). They have enough material right now,
if further enriched, to build at least 2 nuclear bombs (although too heavy for
missiles). North Korea has enough plutonium for at least 10 bombs, they
are making more every day, and they successfully detonated a small nuclear bomb
(Hiroshima size) in 2009. As well, they are developing missile and space
technology. Chavez just met with Putin to obtain nuclear energy and space
technology. PakistanÕs nuclear guru A.Q. Khan is known to have shared
nuclear bomb technology throughout the Middle East. According to Times Now, ÒAlready Pakistan has 60
nuclear warheads, and now with two new plutonium reactors nearing completion in
Khusab, its weapons grade plutonium production will jump seven-fold, according
to latest figures released by Swedish institute SIPRI.Ó
North Korea needs money, a lot of money. Plutonium is one
of the most precious commodities on the planet. Will Pakistan or Korea
sell their plutonium or complete nukes? It does not take a rocket
scientist to figure that one out. Syria has transferred Scud [SS-1] missiles to the Lebanese
Shiite militant group Hezbollah (Jihadi terrorists). North Korea is
suspected of transferring nuclear technology to Syria, Iran and Myanmar
(Burma). In short, the nuclear genie is out of the bottle and it is all
over the globe. We have simply lost control and now it is only a matter
of when, not if.
A super solar
storm can do the same thing as an EMP and would have done so in 1859
and 1921 if our electronics had the sensitivity that they do today. As
reported by NASA Science in May, 2010, ÒThe
sun is waking up from a deep slumber, and in the next few years we expect to
see much higher levels of solar activity. At the same time, our technological
society has developed an unprecedented sensitivity to solar stormsÉ.Ó
Such an event just recently took place. On April 19, 2010, Science
Daily Online observed one of the most massive solar eruptions in years.
Earth was not in the line of fire ... this time.Ó Again, it
is only a matter of time.
A massive cyber
attack to the Grid: "The severity of what we're seeing is
off the charts," said Tom Kellermann, vice president of security awareness
for Core Security Technologies and a member of the Commission on Cyber Security
that is advising President Obama. "Most of the critical infrastructure in
the U.S. has been penetrated to the root by state actors." Joe Weiss, a
security expert and managing partner of Applied Control Solutions, who has
testified before Congress about such threats, said ÒThe industry has failed to
address these vulnerabilities.Ó He said ÒThe long-term ramifications of such an
attack would be severe: If electrical equipment were destroyed, power could be
lost for six to nine months, because the replacement gear would take so long to
manufacture.Ó Note: As you read the following, consider what
that six to nine months without electricity and what the power grid really
means to our society.
EMP is optimized by the detonation of a nuclear weapon at 25 to
250 miles above the Earth's surface. An electromagnetic field radiates
down to the earth, creating electrical currents. These instantaneous
currents accumulate and migrate on long electrical lines and overheat
transformers, large and small. Breakers are of no use due to the speed of
the pulse which is 1,000 times faster than lightning. EMP will cover the wide
geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear burst. A 40 mile
high detonation over Virginia would black out the entire East Coast. A
250 mile high detonation over Kansas would take out most, if not all, of the
continental USA.
The lead time for obtaining a single replacement of the very
large Òstep-up or step downÓ type transformer is two to three years from
overseas (Total worldwide production of these huge transformers is less than
100 per year); there are about 2,000 in the USA that would need to be replaced
plus the millions of small transformers (frequently mounted on utility poles)
in the distribution system. There is a huge and perhaps insurmountable
problem with almost all electrical power generation plants. They must be
shut down gradually according to carefully designed procedures. A sudden
shutdown from an EMP or super solar flare would cause the destruction of major
components of most power plants and, in a grid down scenario, it would not be
possible to repair them. Further,most that survive must have outside power
for start up and that outside power wonÕt exist.
The point is Noah only had to contend with a boat ride and live
off of stored food with no one coming to his door asking for a handout.
We, on the other hand, will be without electricity for many years, able to create
very little new food, and will have to defend against a continuous onslaught of
attackers.
Even a small nuclear weapon at 250 miles high would permanently
take down the electrical grid by shorting out transformers, large and small,
because they are all tied into long distribution lines which would pickup,
magnify and transmit the surge. Although cars, computers, televisions,
generators, etc. may or may not continue to be operational, a regional or
national grid failure would cause a cascade of failures throughout the broader
infrastructure due to our highly interdependent systems and Òjust in timeÓ
delivery systems. Even if cars and trucks still ran there would be no new fuel
supplies. The disruption would include communications (radio, television,
phones, GPS), banking (including ATM machines and credit cards), cash registers
at stores, medical, police (911 dispatching), fire
fighting support, fuel and energy (including gas stations), transportation,
food production, processing and delivery systems (including farm equipment,
fertilizer and insecticides), water for consumption and irrigation, emergency
services, satellites and the Internet. The fundamental force behind any and all
modern industrial societies is electricity.
A small nuclear weapon specifically designed to produce a very
powerful EMP would take out virtually every electrical device that was not
protected. In either case, effectively, the U.S. would be thrown back to
the pre-electrical age and 99% of US food production and processing would
cease. Such an event is frequently referred to as ÒThe end of the world
as we know itÓ (TEOTWAWKI)
or ÒWhen the Schumer hits the fanÓ (WTSHTF).
There would be immediate loss of access to our money.
Under Martial Law, if communications existed to transmit the orders, there
would be extreme limits on access to our money, they would allow maybe a
maximum of 5% of funds on deposit to be withdrawn per month, but banks would
run out of currency almost immediately, if they were open at all, and would not
have access to more. Currency itself would only have value as long as
people believed the government could restore the electrical grid and get things
back to normal. Within a few weeks, when people realize the power will
not be coming back on, currency would have no value. Further, the rest of
the world, seeing our hopeless condition, would realize we would have no
ability to generate revenue and they would deem the US dollar worthless.
Investments in US stocks and bonds would be worthless. The value of real
estate would be at or near zero. There would be no access to funds held
off shore. The loss of wealth as we know it today would be nearly
total. Wealth after TEOTWAWKI would have its basis in clean water (and
the means to make it), food (and the means to grow and preserve it), fuel,
tools and arms and in the knowledge and skills useful in a world without
electricity. Gold and silver may have their place, but Òyou canÕt eat
goldÓ e.g. If I only have enough food for me and my family to survive, I
wonÕt be trading it for gold or silver.
After an EMP or super solar flare, except for those on life
support systems or perhaps in airplanes, there would be no immediate loss of
life due to the burst(s). There would be no shock wave or radiation. For
awhile it would seem to be just an ordinary power outage, but gradually, hour
by hour, the seriousness of the problem would be realized. Water from the tap
would stop very soon if not immediately. Most emergency generators, if they
worked, would run out of fuel within 72 hours. Food in freezers would last
a few days then spoil. Grocery stores would be looted within a
couple of days. Most food in the USA is stored in regional warehouses,
and some of it requires refrigeration. Most people, probably 80%, would
choose to stay in their homes for as long as the food in their pantry lasted
and they had access to clean or treatable water. They would be hoping,
day by day, that the power would come back on and they could resume their
everyday lives again. When the water and/or food ran out or they were
overrun by looters, they would have no choice but to hit the road in hopes of
finding food somewhere. Ninety percent of the US population will run out
of food in their homes in less than two months, many in a week or two. They
would become refugees. A refugee is a person who is carrying with them
all of their means for survival and cannot survive more than a few weeks
without help since they cannot produce new food. Many would loot, burn
and destroy the cities and suburbs while most would hope to find survival in
the country believing that farmers have an abundance of food. Eventually
virtually all must leave the cities because there will be nothing left to eat
and the means to produce new food there will not exist. (Often referred to as
the ÒGolden HordeÓ
which would follow ÒRefugee Lines of
DriftÓ. See: SurvivalBlog.com)
Vladimir Lenin is often quoted as saying, "Where there is
hunger, there is no law." In their struggle to survive refugees
would first be beggars, but very quickly, with the increase in hunger, they
would become looters and spread out like locusts stripping the land of
everything edible. Remember, these people would not be on a simple
weekend camping trip. Rather, they and their children would be starving,
desperate and probably sick. They would have lost everything. They
would face a horrific and uncertain future and they would pretty much do
anything to survive. A few may indeed maintain their moral integrity and
quietly watch their children starve to death, but the vast majority of refugees
will become looters, most of them violent? Many would be in loosely
formed bands for the purpose of overwhelming homes or retreats. They will
resent and hate those who have stored food in advance and feel it is not fair
that preppers should ÒhoardÓ food while their families starve. From the
preppers point of view they may only have enough food for their own family to
survive and to give it away would doom their own family.
Some ÒPreppersÓ will have stored food, fuel and arms for
themselves and their loved ones, but unfortunately most will have chosen to do
so in their suburban or country home, hobby farm or cabin on the lake.
First, when WTSHTF, the neighbors that knew of your prepping will come to your
door when they run low on food, first asking then demanding your food; see the Twilight
Zone episode ÒThe ShelterÓ
by Rod Serling who understood human nature. Second, looting attacks
(violent home invasions) will take place again and again and again on every
house, occupied or not, as the locust like hoard spreads across the land
looking for that last morsel of food. Remote homes/retreats will be least
susceptible but eventually every home/retreat that can be found will be
looted. It may take some time for them to reach the mountain lake cabins,
but they will reach them, and overwhelm them all. The defenders of homes
and retreats will be forced to repeatedly kill and dispose of the bodies of the
attackers and deal with the heartbreak of their own dead and wounded until they
themselves are eventually overwhelmed by a superior force. No matter how
well prepared, the retreat will be overrun. Why? There will be a
great many attacks from random groups large and small, day and night, day after
day, week after week for months. Also, well organized and well armed
groups may note your solid resistance and plan your demise over time since they
know you are not going anywhere. Eventually they will use tear gas,
explosives, armored vehicles, etc. When they want you, they will take
you. The other contingency is that the ÒattackersÓ may be the U.S.
Military or a local government enforcing Martial Law for the confiscation of
food and arms. Frankly, I do not foresee long term survival unless the
retreat remains unknown to all.
Typical homes and cabins cannot be defended well. A high
velocity .308 projectile will pass through the entire house unless it hits a
wall stud or appliance and wall studs are typically spaced 16Ó apart.
Eventually a large enough group or gang will take the house, kill/rape/plunder,
transport the goods to their lair and then move on to other targets. They
would systematically attack every home/retreat they can find. Any
surviving defenders will become refugees. Even with a remote
food/equipment cache, the defenders will still be refugees with insufficient
food to survive until food could be grown and without the means to preserve it
if they could grow it. Almost everyone who becomes a refugee will
surely die quickly from exposure, violent mobs, physical attack, starvation,
disease, infection or dysentery (which would be epidemic due to fouled
water).
You may think this is an exaggeration about the vulnerability of
your home and our society, but just take a minute here to step out of your
house, walk to the street and study your home for a minute. Imagine you,
your brother, and your friend from down the street trying to defend your house
at night with two deer rifles and a 12 gauge shotgun against 20 guys with
semi-automatic assault rifles, night vision goggles and maybe tear gas and an
armored vehicle. You would be surrounded. There would be no help
from anywhere and you would not have a ÒsnowballÕs chance".
They will tell you that if you just give up your supplies they will
leave you unharmed. When you surrender they will have you haul your goods
to their vehicles with smiling gratitude then they will tie you up and torture
your wife or children in front of you until you tell them where your Òsecret
supply cachesÓ of food and gold are located, even if you do not have one. (For
an example in fiction, see the movie Nevada Smith
with Steve McQueen.) The thing is they already know that many retreats
have such caches so, until dead from torture, they will not believe that you do
not. They will kill the men, children and older women and take any young
women with them. Yes, in many cases it will be that horrific. Throughout
history it has always been such.
Your home was built completely dependent on services, including
sewer, water, electricity, heating fuel and the fuel for your car to get you to
and from work and stores. Without electricity you have no heat, no air
conditioning, inability to cook (a large propane tank is an exception), no
lights, no water, no sewer (requires water for the toilet). Without these
services your home is a poorly located weatherproof shell that was built the
way it was and where it was only because of the Òabsolute certaintyÓ that there
would always be electrical service. Here is an eye opening weekend
experiment: Turn off all the electricity to your house (except the
refrigerator and freezer which would be taped shut), turn off the gas and water
and prohibit the use of your vehicles. You will find out in a hurry about
life without electricity. Now look at your neighborÕs house, think about
the houses across town, think of your parents or brotherÕs house across the
country. All across the nation homes are about the same (about 99%), they
all depend upon services that will not be available after the loss of
electricity. And almost all will only have a few weeks to a few months of
food on their kitchen shelves, pantry and refrigerator. Translation, almost
all of their occupants will become refugees when the food runs out or when they
are overwhelmed by attackers and will die soon thereafter. All of
them. Again, the fundamental force behind any and all industrial society
is electricity.
Think about it: When you are forced out of your home or
run out of food and there is no new food to be had anywhere, what are you going
to do, where are you going to go? This wonÕt be like in the movies or
books, there will be no cavalry, no supplies parachuted in, and no relief
trucks arriving just in time. There will be no help at all. Over
310 million people in the U.S. will be on their own just like you with almost
no new food being produced or imported. Think of the total USA food
supply like a giant hour glass being filled with food production and imports
just as fast as it is being consumed. After an EMP or super solar flare
the consumption will continue at the same rate while food production and
importation will essentially stop completely. That means no more new food
added to the hour glass! Perhaps one third of total US food supply will
rot due to the lack of refrigeration and 80% of the balance is somewhere in the
production, storage or distribution system, none of which still function.
The balance available to the masses will be consumed as it is looted. The
hour glass will be essentially empty for the masses. For anyone to
survive they must have enough to eat until new food could be grown, perhaps the
second summer after TEOTWAWKI, assuming you have the means and know how.
Hansel and
Gretel were dumped in the forest to die or fend for themselves,
probably so their parents could try to feed the then smaller family.
During severe famine in the middle ages this forced reduction in the size of
families was not unheard of. Most of us have no concept of real
famine. If we did, each and every one of us would have at least three
years supply of food while obtaining it was so simple, so easy. The
representation of the Witch as a cannibal is not a coincidence. Cannibalism was widespread
in the past among humans throughout the world; in many cultures it was an
everyday thing even without famine. Severe famine and cannibalism,
however, go hand and hand, for example the Uruguayan Air
Force Flight 57, the Donner Party, Siege of Leningrad,
etc. So, when the masses are starving, be careful, they may not look on
you as either friend or foe; they may think of you as dinner.
New food cannot be grown until after the violent gangs are gone and
those with seeds and know how are no longer afraid of having their gardens
discovered. The first new food probably could not be safely grown until
the second summer. The first crop by inexperienced
gardeners without insecticides, fertilizer, equipment or pumped water will be a
disaster. You had better have enough food to get your family through at
least until the third year and way more (non-hybrid) seeds than you think you
need. My mother was a teenager in the Great Depression. She said
they would plant one seed for the birds, one for the bugs and one for
themselves, but since they could buy seeds, you should add one more category,
production of the seeds for next yearÕs crops. By the way, do you know
how to avoid cross pollination and loss of the usefulness of the seeds?
Do you know how to collect and store the seeds? If you are not doing it now,
you probably wonÕt be able to do it later when your lives depend on it.
After the burst, widespread looting would begin within a day or
two in larger cities without containment due to limited communications and
totally inadequate law enforcement. Within a week there would be near
total anarchy except in some small towns and military bases. Well armed
gangs and escaped prisoners, with the most brutal and ruthless taking
leadership, would essentially take over and loot, rape, kill and plunder every
house and food source within their territory no matter how well defended.
In only a couple of weeks these well armed gangs would become very
proficient at taking homes and farms and all they could find would be
overrun. Over time, every farm animal of every description would be
consumed. Wildlife and fisheries would be wiped out. The seed
grains needed for next yearÕs crop would be consumed. Unspeakable atrocities,
cannibalism, and torture would be rampant. The desperate conditions
will unleash the darkest side of human nature. Throughout history, such
atrocities consistently take place when there are no consequences in desperate
times. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
As we go about our day to day lives it is very difficult to
comprehend that any of the people we know or those that live down the street
would do such things, but studies such as the ÒStanford Prison
ExperimentÓ and others have shown perhaps one third of a random
selection of emotionally stable individuals will, within a matter of a few
days, show brutal tendencies. Think of that! One third of the
Òproblem free, mentally stableÓ people! Further, these guys were not
trying to survive, they were merely placed in a position of near absolute power
over others. In the anarchy after ÒGrid DownÓ, if the above is any indication,
one third of the population (or much more considering the survival
circumstances) would become violent predators plus virtually all of the
neighborhood nut cases, criminals, perverts and those in prison. It would
be the worst nightmare of the zombie horror films. The [Los
Angeles] Lakers [basketball team] recently won their umpteenth season and there
were riots, even with a huge law enforcement presence. One news report
read: ÒDespite a massive Los Angeles police presence Thursday night, sporadic
violence broke out near Staples Center after the Lakers defeated the Boston
Celtics in the NBA Finals. Crowds hurled bottles and other objects at
police, smashed marquees, jumped on vehicles, broke windows, and set rubbish
dumpsters and vehicles on fireÉÓ But, what if there had been no police
presence? This was a happy mob.
Eventually, over a year or so, these gangs would be killed off
by a variety of means such as losses taking retreats, heavily armed organized
communities, occasional army units, rival gangs trying to survive, fighting
amongst themselves or, when there were no more places to loot or stored food to
eat, they would starve to death.
In six months to a year 90% of the US population would be dead.
The higher the current population density of an area the higher
percentage death rate since the density of looters and gangs would wipe out
almost every prepper, farmer, or retreat no matter how well defended leaving
nothing to survive on until food could be grown and leaving very few who have
the supplies and know how to grow it. A much higher percentage will
survive in rural Kansas while almost no one would survive in densely populated
areas.
What about help from overseas? The USA currently exports a great
deal of food to feed a hungry world. Without those exports the rest of
the world will have food shortages. Some countries may send aid over the
short term of a month or two, but over the long term of a year or two, it would
be very doubtful since what country is going to starve its own people so that
food can be shipped to the USA? Even if ships are sent, what captain will
dock his ship amongst a mob of looters. Even if they docked, how do you unload
a container ship with no operable cranes? Even if you could unload ships,
how could you move goods inland with no fuel for trucks or trains? Even
if food could be moved inland, what coastal community would export food when
they need it desperately for their own survival?
It would be far far worse for us now than it was in 1890 because
then they had systems in place that worked without electricity such as steam
locomotives, horse drawn wagons and plows and lots and lots of work horses and
mules. Most important, they had era farming tools and the knowledge of how to live their
lives and store food without electricity. Just as vital, they had a
functioning society with on-going production capacity and supply lines for
basic staples. Even the Amish buy staples, they do not produce everything
themselves. After TEOTWAWKI almost no one will have those tools,
supplies, sources for staples or that knowledge. Realistically, the USA
could not even begin to support the 1890 population of about 64 million
people. Unfortunately our existence might be more like the Jamestown colony,
circa 1609-10 or so with hostiles at the gate, starvation, disease, and massive
die offs so severe they called it the ÒStarving TimeÓ. It
could be like that for us without adequate food storage.
What about the military? The nationÕs military is largely
unprotected from an EMP. Since the early 1990s, ÒEssentially all our
new weapon systems have been built with a waiver for EMP hardening,Ó says
Bartlett, a scientist and inventor who is the ranking member of the House Armed
ServicesÕ Subcommittee on Air and Land Forces according to a NewsMax
article.
The Military would be pretty much immobilized although they
would have more stored fuel and supplies than most. The good news is that
if the soldiers who remained with their units could maintain order in the
immediate area of their base, food could be grown the first summer.
Therefore, if you cannot afford to have a hidden retreat, relocating to be
close to a military base in a farming area with good rainfall may save you.
The bad news is that while the military wonÕt rape and plunder, they will take
your food, fuel and guns Òfor the common goodÓ. Since they could defeat
gangs that had taken over regional food storage warehouses they may be able to
accumulate a very large supply of food. They would balance out the food
supply and your only hope then is that enough food could be produced for
everyone or else everyone would starve together. Still, it is better than
being a refugee with no future at all.
The consequences of an EMP burst are consistently understated.
Writers of reports or articles donÕt tell the whole story because they either
worry about being accused of ÒFear mongeringÓ or they are in denial themselves,
being unwilling to let their mind take them to the inevitable consequences of a
modern society suddenly finding itself permanently without electricity.
Frequently there are articles about the possibility of an EMP and they state
that the consequences would be ÒcatastrophicÓ or ÒdisastrousÓ or ÒdevastatingÓ
without going into detail about what that really means. What they
donÕt say is this: Considering our limited ability to create, process and
transport new food without electricity and doing so in a state of near total
anarchy, the survival rate would be maybe 10%. Even Dr. William R.
Graham who is Chairman of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the
United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack and who is intimately familiar
will all aspects of EMP and the vulnerability of our infrastructure and the EMP
effect on transformers, etc. has concluded that a 250 mile high burst over
Kansas would cause the death of about 80% of the 310,000,000 US population.
The actual report to Congress, however, just says ÒCatastrophicÓ.
Who will survive? Primarily those who use the "The
Art of War" tactics of avoiding a direct conflict with superior forces by
using deception and concealment ÒThe general who is skilled in defense
hides in the most secret recesses of the earthÓ. Without electricity the
majority of the population will either kill each other off or die from disease,
exposure or starvation. The survivors, for the most part, will be those
who do not fight at all. The Golden Hoard or a Government entity cannot
fight you or take your supplies if they do not know you exist. The key is
to be well hidden during the six months to a year or so after TEOTWAWKI, then
keep hidden as much as possible while you grow food but maintain a high level
of surveillance and defense. This tactic is completely contrary to the
Rambo survivalist types with an arsenal at their disposal and an attitude of
ÒBring it onÓ for the Golden Horde and gangs.
ÒThere are a few possible survival scenarios presented here in
no particular order since each individual must adapt their skills, knowledge
and resources to their situation.
1. Very remote, well
hidden, well armed, well trained and well stocked retreats with enough people
to guard and defend the retreat and the equipment and other resources to
produce food. Food production could begin by the second summer but if it is far
away from where you live, you might not be able to get to it. ("Patriots").
2.
Very small towns that are cohesive enough to band together, consolidate
resources and defend against gangs or refugee throngs (as in the novels One Second After
and Lights Out).
This is a tactic that would allow food production to begin ASAP. A
defendable town on the coast or a large river would be best to allow fish to
supplement the diet. However, because it will be ruled by a government,
they may also confiscate your supplies for the common good. The Alaska
panhandle would be ideal but you Ògotta like the rainÓ.
3.
Areas in the immediate proximity of military bases where good gardens could be
grown. You would still have to survive some home invasions and looting
early on but the military presence could provide the security, technical
knowledge, tools, equipment and fuel for food production to begin ASAP
following TEOTWAWKI. You will be under their ÒanalÓ direction and have
few freedoms, but you and your family may survive.
4. Those
who have stored food and fuel, have access to good water and can stay
completely out of sight for up to a year (undetectable fully serviced basement
or bomb type shelter). This would allow a family to live in quiet comfort
while the rest of the world kills itself off. It is much more doable than
one might think, see the references section about ÒBasementsÓ.
5.
Those very rare few who could survive in the wilderness well off any trails and
undetectable by smoke, smell or sight for a year or more by placing a large
cache of food and survival equipment at a wilderness hide. While I could
survive year around in the Alaska wilderness if I did not get sick or hurt and
if properly prepared (having done so), here in Georgia, the forests would just
be too ÒcrowdedÓ to keep hidden; the survivor in the woods here would simply be
ÒThe Last Man StandingÓ.
6. Those who had a well stocked
sailboat that could be sailed to the tropics (Watch out for Pirates). This
is a situation where having gold and silver would pay big dividends.
7.
The Amish are wonderfully equipped with tools and knowledge to survive and
thrive in the long term without electricity, however, they will be wiped out
and their food stocks taken since they do not have guns or knowledge of
defensive tactics. They do not have the ability to survive in the short
term against armed gangs. This is a classic example of the skill sets
necessary to survive early in TEOTWAWKI are much different that those required
much later in TEOTWAKI but that for anyone to survive in the long term, they
must have both sets. Since the Amish farms function without electricity,
when they and the gangs are dead and gone, the tools and systems will still be
in place if you know how to utilize them. Of course, all of the animals
will have been consumed.
Others who may survive are refugees with skills useful in a post
TEOTWAWKI world who may find refuge in one of the above. What
skills? Read books about life in 1890 (Lawyers, politicians and stock
brokers need not apply but those who could fix a tooth or build a steam engine
would be in high demandÉ a steam engine fired by wood or coal could power a
generator to create electricity). Travel tip: have a map showing
the nearest military base and be there very soon because even the military will
have its limits of how many people they can handle.
WTSHTF,
at some point each and every one of us must decide if we actually want to
survive to a life that would be harder than any we have ever imagined.
But more than that we must decide if we are willing to kill other human beings
to defend our food cache and loved ones? Are we willing to kill others to
take food so our loved ones could survive? What about witnessing the
killings, rapes, torture of our friends, neighbors and loved ones and enduring
the smell of rotting bodies that goes on without end. Are we strong
enough to mentally go through all of that and keep our sanity and our will to
live? Will we survive the guilt of our own survival when the vast
majority has died? Further, the mental stress after an EMP burst would be
monumental. People would have to instantly transition from the
availability of vast amounts of information at their fingertips and information
overload to a near total information vacuum. A great many will not be
able to handle all or even part of it. Even highly trained military
personnel do not handle such events well, how can ordinary citizens hope to
live through it and stay sane.
What about Mutual Assured Destruction that kept USA and USSR
from war? Maybe but MAD might not work. There are some fanatics in
Iran. Ahmadinejad has said that he wants to bring about the coming of the
12th Imam: "Our revolution's main mission is to pave the way for the
reappearance of the 12th Imam, the Mahdi" –
Ahmadinejad. (So what then are the conditions for the Mahdi's arrival? The
destruction of Israel and world conflagration). The threat of our
retaliation and the destruction of Iran and the Middle East may not be much of
a deterrent in AhmadinejadÕs belief system. If Ahmadinejad could
simultaneously detonate a bomb in Tel Aviv and 6 to 10 nuclear satellites
around the globe at 250 miles high to cause the eventual death of the majority
of the worldÕs infidel population and significantly level the playing field, do
you think he would? Are you kidding? In a New York minute. He
canÕt do it yet, but, even though it may take years, Iran is working feverishly
on the satellite delivery system and in making bombs themselves.
Of course, our own Sun could beat Ahmadinejad to the
punch. Severe space weather events that we know about originating from
the Sun with the Earth in the Òline of fireÓ have occurred in 1989, 1921 and
1859 (geomagnetic solar super storms). In 1989 only one of the very large
difficult to replace step up/step down transformer was destroyed. The
1921 event was 10 times stronger and if it happened today it would probably
destroy all of the large transformers. The 1859 event was much stronger
than the one in 1921. Such an event could easily destroy the huge
transformers that would take years to replace (If the capacity to produce them
still existed) which means years without electricity for most of the
population. The problem is, we canÕt survive that long. Scientists
consider the recurrence of such a solar super storm as not just a possibility
but as inevitable. Indeed, if the Earth had been in the line of fire on April
19, 2010 we quite probably would be living ÒGrid DownÓ in TEOTWAWKI right now.
How prepared were you and your family on April 19?
Can an EMP burst be prevented? The Heritage Foundation has written
extensively on the subject and it is well worth the read. At present
defensive missiles are in place in Alaska and California to take out
intercontinental missiles in the atmosphere from N. Korea. We must have
defensive missiles around the entire USA that are capable of taking out long
and short range missiles (such as a Scud or IranÕs new 1,200 mile missile
launched from a freighter like Iran did in the Caspian Sea). When the
ÒStar WarsÓ defense was proposed in the 1980Õs there were those who said such a
defense was not possible because Òyou canÕt hit a bullet with another bulletÓ,
but now the experts say ÒWe can hit a spot on a bullet with another
bulletÓ. We have the technology to do this.
We should protect our transformers by requiring all new ones to
be EMP and solar flare protected (it adds about 5% to the cost). We could
use that stimulus money to retrofit existing transformers, if possible and
protect our railroad engines and systems, fuel production, transportation, and
electrical generation systems.
If we prepare now, quickly, two things will be
accomplished: First, there would be a good chance that the civilized
world we know today would survive an EMP burst or super solar storm and, two,
there would be far less incentive for an EMP strike. But, as it stands
now, if you wanted to destroy the USA whom you perceive to be the devil, you
would be salivating at the prospect of launching a few missiles off a freighter
in the Gulf of Mexico and causing the death of 90% of the US population.
For those who wish to destroy us it has to be positively orgasmic and we should
absolutely not underestimate their resourcefulness. Remember,
they have access to all of the EMP information you and I do and probably much
more. They also have the ability to coordinate a massive cyber attack on
the electrical grid which is extremely vulnerable.
That said, the nuclear genie is indeed out of the bottle.
Al-Qaeda is said to control 80 freighter ships. It is only a matter of
time before organized terrorist groups obtain a bomb that they can sail into
one of our port cities. A crude bomb from IranÕs uranium would weigh a
few thousand pounds. The fact is, we will have to accept the
horrific reality that, from time to time, a major coastal city will be nuked
from a freighter or small submarine, terrorists have both. Such is the
reality of the failure to contain the nuclear genie. They have the desire
to kill every man, woman and child in the USA and they have the means to
deliver a nuke to our coastal cities; they just need the nuke.
What would be so difficult about having someone like ÒJihad
JaneÓ purchase a good sized boat with a dock slip at Gangplank Marina on the
Potomac River in Wash. D.C., motor out through Chesapeake Bay to the ocean to
pick up a nuke from a freighter at night then arrive at Gangplank Marina on a
weekday afternoon and detonate it ?
If one of our cities is nuked, the nation will be under martial
law. If your retreat is very far away, the police or military may prevent
you from getting there. If you live anywhere on either coast they will
probably not let you exit inland. Both politicians and the military have
shown their propensity to confiscate guns at such times and most certainly will
do so again. Further, the ÒtemporaryÓ martial law may well become
permanent. Your stored food may be deemed ÒHoardingÓ and be confiscated
in an unconstitutional but nonetheless real house to house search performed by
guys who are looking for secret hiding places. You do not want these
people to be able to find either your beans or your bullets because, even under
permanent martial law, we may still be hit by an EMP burst or solar storm or
another coastal nuke.
The world is different today than ever before. The basic
problem in our psyche is that we have the Òwhite hatÓ cowboy mentality; we
never throw the first punch, we never draw the gun first; we wait for the bad
guy to shoot or draw and only then do we react. This time, if we wait for
them to strike first with an EMP without being well prepared, this country, as
we know it, will cease to exist. Our military may well destroy their
country in retaliation, if they knew where the nuke(s) came from, but the above
EMP scenario will still take place here regardless of what happens to the other
guy later.
During the cold war we lived with the fear in the back of our
minds that one day there may be Global Thermonuclear War that would destroy the
world. However, while Global Thermonuclear War is still a possibility, a
super solar storm, EMP burst and/or nuked coastal cities are eventual certainties.
Nuking a coastal city is easiest and most likely, of course, but our
unconscionable lack of preparation makes an EMP burst so appealing they will do
everything in their power to make it happen.
Noah knew he could not tread water for long and built the
Ark. Since people cannot live on a zero calorie diet for long and the
Federal Government, whoÕs primary duty is to protect us, is doing nothing to
prevent or prepare for an EMP, super solar flare or cyber attack, we all had
better store at least three years of beans, band aids, bullets and benzin. In other
words, become a ÒPrepperÓ, but do so wisely, very well hidden and very very
secretly.
ÒIf you think the unthinkable and devise plans to survive,
then when the unthinkable occurs, you are prepared and will make the correct
choices automatically.Ó (SurvivalBlog.com)
A basic rule of thumb in survival situations is that 10% will do
the absolute wrong thing, 80% will do nothing and wait to be led, while 10% do
the right thing.
An EMP, a massive cyber attack, and a nuked coastal city are all
possible but a super solar flare is inevitable. Just a word of caution
here, once you let yourself think about such threats and project the inevitable
outcomes of life here in the USA without electricity, it is very difficult to
get your mind back inside that ÒdenialÓ box."- Tom S.
About wood stoves: Having lived in an Alaskan cabin with
only wood heat for four years I know that the smoke makes it very difficult to
keep your presence a secret. Even a year or two after TEOTWAWKI you still
will want to keep your existence as secret as possible, therefore do not use
just any wood stove; use the 95% efficient and virtually smokeless wood stoves
available that, with very dry wood, produce almost no smoke. Further, use
wood fuel that does not have a strong odor such as birch and avoid those that
do such as cedar or some hardwoods. For wilderness survival there is
nothing better than a small fan forced wood
stove such as the Sierra
stove or similar. I have used these on extended Alaska camp-outs with the
Boy Scouts with great success and always unlimited fuel. Because they are
fan forced they are very good at burning any wood and producing almost no
smoke. This type of fan forced fire is very useful for surviving in the
wilderness or, with larger versions and side feed, using outside your retreat
to process food.
Basements: Undetectable fully serviced basements/retreats:
A family or group in an undetectable basement or bomb shelter can survive in
quiet comfort while the rest of the world kills itself off without the tear
jerking confrontations from starving beggars, violent confrontations with
gangs, looters or the military. And yes, it is very possible.
I once saw an article about a family who bought a house and
after living there for two years discovered there was a full basement under the
house. The previous owner had sealed up the stairs going down and filled
in the small windows that had previously been visible. Why did he do
that? He was hiding a flooded basement. So, if a basement can be
invisible to someone who actually lives in a house for over two years, what
would it take to make a basement invisible to looters and gangs who would be
there for less than 30 minutes? That will be the subject of a
separate article.
Selected References:
SurvivalBlog.com, numerous
writings
ÒElectromagnetic
Pulse Weapons: Congress Must Understand the RiskÓ by Baker Spring,
Heritage Foundation WebMemo #2822
"Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the
United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack," Volume 1: Executive Report,
2004
"Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the
United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: Critical
National Infrastructures," April 2008
Executive Report
(See the EMP Commission web site.)
From the Executive Report Summary: ÒHowever, now even a
single, low-yield nuclear explosion high above the United StatesÉ can produce a
large-scale EMP effect that could result in a widespread loss of electronics,
but no direct fatalities, and may not necessarily evoke a large nuclear
retaliatory strike by the U.S. military. This, coupled with published articles
discussing the vulnerability of U.S. critical infrastructure control systems,
and some U.S. military battlefield systems to the effects of EMP, may create a
new incentive for other countries to rapidly develop or acquire a nuclear
capability.Ó
ÒThe electrical power system has become virtually fully
dependent upon electronic systems working nearly flawlessly. The overall system
reliability is testimony to the skill and effectiveness of the control systems.
However, the lack of margin (combination of generation and transmission
margins) results in making catastrophic cascading outages far more likely, and
should the electronics be disrupted, the system is highly likely to fail on a
broad scale. Thus, the small margin and reliance on electronics give rise to
EMP vulnerability.Ó
ÒAll production for these large transformers used in the United
States is currently offshore. Delivery time for these items under benign
circumstances is typically one to two years. There are about 2,000 such
transformers rated at or above 345 kV in the United States with about 1 percent
per year being replaced due to failure or by the addition of new ones.
Worldwide production capacity is less than 100 units per year and serves a
world market, one that is growing at a rapid rate in such countries as China
and India. Delivery of a new large transformer ordered today is nearly 3 years,
including both manufacturing and transportation. An event damaging several of
these transformers at once means it may extend the delivery times to well
beyond current time frames as production is taxed. The resulting impact on timing
for restoration can be devastating. Lack of high voltage equipment
manufacturing capacity represents a glaring weakness in our survival and
recovery to the extent these transformers are vulnerableÉ.Ó
ÒMany electric generating plants would be severely damaged by
uncontrolled shut down. Almost none, even if not damaged, would be able
to restart without external power.Ó
ÒEMP is one event that may couple ultimately unmanageable
currents and voltages into an electrical system routinely operated with little margin
and cause the collapse of large portions of the electrical system. In fact, the
Commission is deeply concerned that such impacts are certain in an EMP event
unless practical steps are taken to provide protection for critical elements of
the electric system and to provide for rapid restoration of service,
particularly to essential loads.Ó
ÒThe current strategy for recovering from such failures is based
on the assumption of sporadic failures of small numbers of components, and for
larger failures, drawing on resources from outside the affected area. This
strategy leaves us ill-prepared to respond effectively to an EMP attack that
would potentially result in damage to vast numbers of components nearly
simultaneously over an unprecedented geographic scale.Ó
ÒThe Commission has concluded that the electrical system within
the NERC region so disrupted will collapse with near certainty. Thus one or
more of the three integrated, frequency-independent NERC regions will be
without electrical service. This loss is very large geographically and
restoration is very likely to be beyond short-term emergency backup generators
and batteries. Any reasonable EMP event would be much larger than the Texas
region so basically the concern is the Eastern and Western regions with Texas
either included or not depending upon the location of the weapon. The basic
threat to U.S. society that moves an EMP event from a local or short-term
adverse impact to a more prolonged and injurious event is the time it takes to
restore electrical and other infrastructure service.
North American Electric Reliability Corporation three regions,
Texas, West and East. All of these collapse mechanisms acting
simultaneously provide the unambiguous conclusion that electrical power system
collapse for the NERC region largely impacted by the EMP weapon is inevitable
in the event of attack using even a relatively low-yield device of particular
characteristics.
EMP attack on the electrical power system is an extraordinarily
serious problem but one that can be reduced below the level of a catastrophic
national consequence through focused effort coordinated between industry and
government.Ó
Independent
Working Group, "Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and
the Twenty-First Century," 2009 Report, p. 130, at
Rawles, James Wesley, "Patriots:
A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse", Ulysses Press,
2009
Forstchen, William R., One Second After,
Tom Doherty Assoc., 2009
Lights Out, by Half Fast
(formerly an Internet e-novel, now being published)
CBS Twilight Zone episode ÒThe ShelterÓ
Brieitbart.com ÒSpies compromised US electric gridÓ,
Associated Press
Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding
Societal and Economic Impacts Workshop Report Committee on the Societal and
Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events: A Workshop, National Research
Council
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12507.html
ÒEMP Attack Would Send America into a
Dark AgeÓ ÒEMP Attack Would Wipe Out U.S. MilitaryÓ,
NewsMax, Monday, 28 Sep 200
Some key quotes:
ÒAn estimated 80 percent of the population would die within a
year of an EMP strike from starvation or disease or would freeze to death,
according to William Graham, who was chairman of the congressional Commission
to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack.Ó
ÒThe nationÕs military is largely unprotected in the event an
enemy launches a nuclear bomb that would fry microchips and the power grid with
an electromagnetic pulse (EMP), Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., tells Newsmax.Ó
ÒSince the early 1990s, ÒEssentially all our new weapon systems
have been built with a waiver for EMP hardening,Ó says Bartlett, a scientist
and inventor who is the ranking member of the House Armed ServicesÕ
Subcommittee on Air and Land Forces.
ÒIf an enemy used an EMP enhanced
weapon — and Russian generals told our EMP commission that they had
developed weapons which emit 200 kilovolts per meter weapon — IÕve been
assured by experts in the area that everything would be down,Ó says Bartlett,
who has been the leading member of Congress fighting to recognize EMP as a
threat.Ó
In fact, ÒOne of the first things [an enemy] would do is an EMP
laydown to deny you the use of all your equipment which is not EMP hardened,
which is essentially all our equipment,Ó Bartlett says. ÒThey donÕt harden
against EMP any more.Ó
The Stanford Prison Experiment:
The Stanford prison experiment was a study of the psychological
effects of becoming a prisoner or prison guard. The experiment was conducted in
1971 by a team of researchers led by Psychology Professor Philip Zimbardo at
Stanford University. Twenty-four undergraduates were selected out of 70 to play
the roles of both guards and prisoners and live in a mock prison in the
basement of the Stanford psychology building. Those selected were chosen for
their lack of psychological issues, crime history, and medical disabilities, in
order to obtain a representative sample. Roles were assigned based on a coin
toss.
Prisoners and guards rapidly adapted to their roles, stepping
beyond the boundaries of what had been predicted and leading to dangerous and
psychologically damaging situations. One-third of the guards were judged to
have exhibited ÒgenuineÓ sadistic tendencies, while many prisoners were emotionally
traumatized and two had to be removed from the experiment early. After a
graduate student (prisoner #819) broke down from the inhumane conditions in the
prison, and realizing that he had been passively allowing unethical acts to be
performed under his direct supervision, Zimbardo concluded that both prisoners
and guards had become too grossly absorbed in their roles and terminated the
experiment after six days.
Milgram, Stanley, 1974 book, Obedience to Authority:
An Experimental View. Milgram described experiments
conducted at Yale University in 1961after the start of the trial of German Nazi
war criminal Adolf Eichmann in Jerusalem. Milgram devised his psychological
study to answer the question: "Was it that Eichmann and his accomplices in
the Holocaust had mutual intent, in at least with regard to the goals of the
Holocaust?" In other words, "Was there a mutual sense of morality
among those involved?" Milgram's testing suggested that it could have been
that the millions of accomplices were merely following orders, despite
violating their deepest moral beliefs. He set up an experiment and showed
that most ordinary people can become accomplices in killing totally innocent
individuals.
Tom Peters and Robert H. Waterman Jr wrote in 1981
that the Milgram experiment and the Stanford prison experiment were frightening
in their implications about the danger which lurks in the darker side of human
nature.
33 Minutes Protecting
America in the New Missile Age (2008) by The Heritage Foundation,
214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE, Washington, DC 20002 Ph. (202) 546-4400
Food production and life styles in the USA in 1900 compared to
life today:
In 1900, 39 percent of the U.S. population (about 30 million
people) lived on farms; today that percentage has plummeted to less than 2
percent (only about 4.5 million people). The transformation of the United
States from a nation of farmers to a nation in which less than 2 percent of the
population is able to feed the other 98 percent is made possible only by
technology.
Physical condition, age, amount of fat, and air temperature are
major factors but an absolute deprivation of food, on average, will greatly
diminish a personÕs capacity for physical work within a few days. After 4 to 5
days without food, the average person will suffer from impaired judgment and
have difficulty performing simple intellectual tasks. After two weeks without
food, the average person will be virtually incapacitated. Death typically
results between 30 to 60 days with a few being able to last up to 70
days. This is without any physical activity and plenty of good water.